ETHNICITY, ELECTORAL EXPECTATION AND ELECTORAL VIOLENCE IN NIGERIA A PROGNOSIS OF 2011 PRESIDENTIAL POST ELECTION VIOLENCE IN NORTHERN NIGERIA

Abstract

The 16th April 2011 presidential election in Nigeria is the fourth in a series of elections since Nigeria's transition to civilian governance began in 1999, where widely considered to be substantially transparent and credible than the three preceding elections in 1999, 2003 and 2007, in the eyes of both domestic and foreign election observers, was dented by post-electoral violence, which broke out in some northern states of Kaduna Kano, Gombe, Bauchi, Adamawa and others as the presidential election results were announced. This resulted to killings, destruction of both government and private prosperities, as well as displacement of persons. Thus, this is reflection on ethnicity-based political expectation and domination against perceived rigging and manipulation in the electoral process in Nigeria. This paper, therefore, aims at analysing the aftermath of 2011 presidential post-electoral violence in northern Nigeria, to enable stakeholders prevent and manage electoral programmes that can forestall future recurrence. The theoretical framework adopted is ‘frustration-aggression theory’ propounded by Dollard in 1939 and applied secondary source of data collection. The findings of the study tilt towards failed ethnic expectations by those who supported the principle of zoning in the People Democratic Party (PDP) triggered the post- election violence in northern Nigeria and recommend amongst others the need for political parties to do away with ethnic sentiments to promote internal democracy and ensure good governance on the basis of equity to reward it citizenship.